With “no significant enchancment” within the provide of recent vehicles and vans on the market, U.S. auto gross sales are anticipated to fall about 15.6% in January vs. January 2021, in accordance with a forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive that was posted Jan. 26.
Analysts hope for some enchancment in new-vehicle availability later this 12 months, however these hopes preserve getting deferred. An ongoing scarcity of pc chips is holding again manufacturing, and subsequently auto gross sales quantity. New vehicles are heavy on pc chips, that are wanted to run fashionable automotive electronics.
“We’re nowhere close to out of the woods,” on the subject of the pc chip scarcity, mentioned Joseph McCabe, president and CEO of AutoForecast Solutions, in a latest webinar hosted by the New York-based International Motor Press Association.
McCabe says analysts anticipate some enchancment to start within the third quarter of 2022, “however that may transfer. It’s a really fluid dialog.”
U.S. auto gross sales are on a tempo to succeed in 932,100 models in January, down from about 1.2 million a 12 months earlier, the forecast from J.D. Energy and LMC Automotive mentioned.
For all of 2021, U.S. auto gross sales have been 15 million. That was a 3.3% enhance over 2021, however expectations had been a lot increased for 2021, in contrast with 2020. In 2020, pandemic-related enterprise shutdowns damage new-vehicle manufacturing, adopted by a sluggish reboot in auto manufacturing.
That makes it two years in a row of low new-vehicle provides relative to excessive demand. Low provide vs. excessive demand has had a predictable impact on new-vehicle costs.
The common new-vehicle retail transaction worth in January is an estimated $44,905, the forecast mentioned. December 2021 was a file $45,283. Common transaction worth is a measure of what prospects truly pay, taking incentives under consideration.
With low provide and excessive demand, the typical incentive for January is anticipated to fall to $1,319, down 62% vs. January 2021, in accordance with the forecast.