After roughing up the Raiders 41-14 final week in Las Vegas, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (6-4) have moved into first place within the tightly-packed AFC West. Now the Chiefs get a more durable problem Sunday when the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys (7-2) go to Arrowhead Stadium for one of many marquee match-ups of Week 11.
The Sunday, Nov. 21 late afternoon kickoff between the Chiefs and Cowboys is ready for 4:25 ET and shootout is anticipated with the over/underneath of 56 factors at BetMGM the very best whole of the week.
The Chiefs and Cowboys recreation is likely one of the three most guess video games in Week 11 at BetMGM. The competition taking probably the most bets is Inexperienced Bay at Minnesota. The Packers opened a 2.5-point favourite, however bettors are anticipating a Vikings victory with the betting line down to choose ‘em after which again to Packers -1 Saturday afternoon with many key Packers gamers lacking on the damage report.
Dallas at Kansas Metropolis
BetMGM Line: Chiefs -2.5. Complete 56. Moneyline KC -135, DAL +115
Dallas is extra versatile on offense, and the Cowboys offense leads the NFL averaging 31.6 factors and 434 yards per recreation at 6.3 yards per play. The operating recreation clearly favors the Cowboys in opposition to the Chiefs protection with Dallas top-6 within the league in speeding yards (140), yards per rush (4.6) and speeding makes an attempt (30.1) per recreation. Ezekiel Elliott leads the NFC in speeding with 663 yards. However Dallas will play this recreation with out second-leading receiver Amari Cooper (COVID), and high offensive left deal with Tyron Smith is a game-time resolution having missed the final two video games with a excessive ankle sprain. Nonetheless, this recreation won’t disappoint in scoring with each groups shifting the ball and buying and selling scoring punches.
With an over/underneath of 56 factors, the Chiefs and Cowboys have the very best mixed implied team totals of the week with a 2.5-point unfold and implied rating of Kansas Metropolis 30 and Dallas 27.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes handed for a season-high 406 yards and 5 touchdowns final week to cross Tom Brady for the AFC passing lead this season. Mahomes has 2,940 passing yards, and he will get one other reinforcement again this week so as to add to the Chiefs high weapons WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce. Working again Clyde Edwards-Helaire is being activated having missed the final 5 video games with a MCL sprain.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is shifting up within the common season MVP race with +700 odds to win at BetMGM. Prescott has gone on the highway twice this season in opposition to stronger defenses of Tampa Bay and New England and handed not less than 50 instances every recreation for over 400 yards. Main receiver CeeDee Lamb scored in every of these video games whereas totaling not less than 100 receiving yards in every contest. He’ll be focused usually once more in opposition to the Chiefs, and Teamranking.com defensive stats present the Chiefs protection is enhancing, however nonetheless enable 6.2 yards per play this season – solely the Jets are worse. Prescott can carve up the Chiefs cross protection that has been among the many league’s worst permitting 67% completions and seven.7 yards per cross.
The Playbook Sports activities Totals Tipsheet loves the Chiefs and Cowboys recreation over the overall with some robust situational help by which each groups scored not less than 35 factors final recreation. The Chiefs have a bye subsequent week, and betting favorites earlier than their bye week are 8-0 over the overall this season with an over/underneath of not less than 45 factors. That included the Cowboys 35-29 highway win at New England as favourite in Week 6 earlier than their bye.
Choose: Over and Cowboys
Inexperienced Bay at Minnesota
BetMGM Line: Packers -1. Complete 47. Opening strains GB -2.5 and Complete 49.5.
The Packers offense has failed to attain greater than 24 factors in regulation in 5 straight video games. But Inexperienced Bay has gone 4-1 with their solely loss at Kansas Metropolis when Aaron Rodgers (COVID) was out. Rodgers will play in opposition to the Vikings, however he’s been restricted in apply for a lot of weeks as he has been coping with turf toe throughout his COVID-19 quarantine. The Packers (8-2) have coated the purpose unfold in nine-straight video games since a gap week loss. Inexperienced Bay is at present the highest playoff seed within the NFC and maintain a 3.5-game lead over the Vikings (4-5) within the NFC North.
However a more in-depth examination of this Packers vs Vikings match-up and effectivity metrics like EPA per play (Anticipated Factors Added) and DVOA (Protection-adjusted Worth Over Common) and you may see these two groups are extra evenly matched that the market signifies.
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook dinner leads the NFC averaging 92 speeding yards per recreation. Second-year receiver Justin Jefferson is having one other Professional Bowl season with 775 receiving yards, and underrated QB Kirk Cousins has an 18-to-2 TD-INT ratio. The Vikings get some defensive reinforcements back this week together with cornerback Patrick Peterson and security Harrison Smith. The Packers will likely be with out All-Professional left deal with David Bakhtiari and Professional Bowl operating again Aaron Jones together with WR Allen Lazard. All-Professional cornerback Jaire Alexander stays out indefinitely with a shoulder damage.
The Playbook Sports publication factors out a technical state of affairs exhibiting the Vikings are 10-4 as a house underdog underneath head coach Mike Zimmer, together with 4-0 as a division dwelling underdog.
NFL Week 11 injury report from Professional Soccer Focus
NFL Week 11 Betting Knowledge
Whereas the 2 video games above are producing probably the most betting motion, groups taking probably the most cash on unfold bets this week as of Friday morning at BetMGM embody:
- Bears (+6) vs Ravens
- Dolphins (-3.5) at Jets
- Bengals (-1) at Raiders
- 49ers (-6.5) at Jaguars
- Texans (+10.5) at Titans
- Browns (-12) vs Lions
All these groups in daring are taking not less than 75% of the purpose unfold cash (deal with).
The replace on probably the most guess groups (tickets) this week on the purpose unfold are the Packers, Cowboys and ugly underdog Texans.
At the very least 90% of the over/underneath cash has been guess over the overall. Bettors are hoping for prime scoring ends in the Dallas at Kansas Metropolis, Cincinnati at Las Vegas and New York Giants at Tampa Bay (Monday) video games.
The Vikings and Cowboys have been among the many hottest teaser bets, previous to the road shifting down on Minnesota.
Bettors seeking to parlay the Vikings and Cowboys on the moneyline would get again approx. $440 on a $100 guess for a web win of $340 if each groups win.
Extra bets proceed to come back in main as much as the Sunday’s video games, and the unfold, odds, totals and betting knowledge is all the time topic to alter.
Appears just like the Packers ATS successful streak of 9-straight money-making video games involves an finish, regardless of Inexperienced Bay taking greater than 70% of the unfold bets and larger than 60% of the cash at BetMGM.
You possibly can guess on it.