Forecasters anticipate U.S. auto gross sales to say no in August 2021 vs. August 2020, as a result of new automobiles are in comparatively brief provide, and factories can’t appear to maintain up.
The continued laptop chip scarcity, and the worldwide rebound in coronavirus circumstances, are disrupting auto trade provide chains. On the similar time, shopper demand is powerful. Sellers report they may promote much more vehicles and vans, if solely they’d the stock.
Excessive retail costs are the opposite results of excessive demand and low provide.
Gross sales for August 2021 are anticipated to be round 1.1 million vehicles and vans mixed, down 13.7% vs. August 2020, and down 25.3% vs. pre-COVID August 2019, based on a joint forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. P.c comparisons are primarily based on the every day common promoting fee.
That interprets to a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Charge of simply 13.1 million items, down from 15.2 million a 12 months in the past, or 17.1 million, in August 2019. The SAAR is an estimate of what gross sales can be for your entire 12 months, primarily based on the promoting fee for a given month.
U.S. sellers have solely about 942,000 automobiles in stock accessible for retail sale, vs. round 3 million two years in the past, based on Thomas King, president of the analytics division at J.D. Energy.
Individually, TrueCar Inc. reported a considerably larger August auto gross sales forecast, of about 1.2 million items, down 4% vs. a 12 months in the past. TrueCar’s estimate for the month-to-month SAAR is 14.4 million, additionally down 4% vs. a 12 months in the past.
New automobiles are promoting quick, in some circumstances nearly as quickly as they arrive at a dealership, mentioned Nick Woolard, lead trade analyst at TrueCar. About one-third of automobiles are promoting inside every week of arriving on the vendor lot, in comparison with simply 18% final 12 months, Woolard mentioned.
J.D. Energy and LMC Automotive mentioned greater than 49% of automobiles can be bought inside 10 days of arriving at a dealership, up from 26% in pre-pandemic August 2019. On common, a brand new car sits on a vendor lot for a record-low estimate of 26 days.
That’s the primary time on document under 30 days, and down from 62 days a 12 months in the past, the consulting and analysis companies mentioned.